|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李大鸣,刘训平,段丽瑶,等.基于AHP的泥石流区域预报数学模型研究[J].天津大学学报(自然科学版),2017,(09):900-906.[doi:10.11784/tdxbz201605068]
 Li Daming,Liu Xunping,Duan Liyao,et al.Forecasting Mathematical Model of Regional Debris Flow Based on AHP[J].Journal of Tianjin University,2017,(09):900-906.[doi:10.11784/tdxbz201605068]
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基于AHP的泥石流区域预报数学模型研究()
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《天津大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:0493-2137/CN:12-1127/N]

卷:
期数:
2017年09
页码:
900-906
栏目:
建筑工程
出版日期:
2017-09-22

文章信息/Info

Title:
Forecasting Mathematical Model of Regional Debris Flow Based on AHP
文章编号:
0493-2137(2017)09-0900-07
作者:
李大鸣1 刘训平1 段丽瑶2 李培彦2 熊明明2
1. 天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072;2. 天津市气象局,天津 300074
Author(s):
Li Daming1 Liu Xunping1 Duan Liyao2 Li Peiyan2 Xiong Mingming2
1.Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
2.Tianjin Meteorological Bureau, Tianjin 300074, China
关键词:
泥石流 水动力模式 危险因子 有限体积法 层次分析法 预报模型
Keywords:
debris flow hydrodynamic model risk factor finite volume method analytic hierarchy process forecast model
分类号:
P694
DOI:
10.11784/tdxbz201605068
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
以天津蓟县山区作为研究区域, 根据泥石流形成的水动力模式, 综合考虑将发生频率、24 h最大降雨量、水流流速、地形坡度、岩性、植被覆盖类型和人口密度等作为泥石流危险因子.采用地表水模型系统进行研究区域网格的划分, 生成步长均值为500 m的无结构不规则三角形和四边形网格, 再用Fortran程序读取生成的网格信息, 得到网格中单元-通道-结点三者的关系, 最后利用有限体积法进行降雨量的水动力计算, 建立基于层次分析法的预报模型.最后, 根据计算出的网格危险等级对蓟县2012年发生的双安泥石流进行了验证, 验证结果与实际吻合, 说明泥石流区域预报模型建立方法的可行性.
Abstract:
According to the formation of debris flow of hydrodynamic model,this paper investigated the mountainous region of Jixian County by considering frequency,maximum rainfall within 24 h,flow velocity,terrain slope,geological lithology,vegetation types and population density as risk factors. The paper applied surface-water modeling system to dividing research area into grids which were non-structural irregular triangles and quadrangles with the mean step-size value of 500 m. Then the Fortran program was used to read the generated mesh information to obtain the relationship of the element-channel-node within the grid. Finally,the rainfall hydrodynamic force was calculated by using finite volume method to establish the forecast model based on analytic hierarchy process. The calculated grid danger level of the debris flow of Shuang’an in Jixian in 2012 was in good agreement with actual result,which verified the feasibility of establishing the regional forecast model for debris flow.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2016-05-18; 修回日期: 2016-11-14.
作者简介: 李大鸣(1957—), 男, 博士, 教授.
通讯作者: 李大鸣, lidaming@tju.edu.cn.
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金资助项目(51321065); 天津地质灾害风险预警技术集成与应用(CMAGJ 2015M03).
Supported by the Innovation Fund Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 51321065)and the Integration and Application of Geological Disaster Risk Early Warning Technology in Tianjin(No. CMAGJ2015M03).
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-09-10