|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]高洁,陈天,刘畅. 气候变化背景下滨海城市应急疏散决策体系构建——以欧盟忒修斯项目为例[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2018,(2):171-178.
 Gao Jie,Chen Tian,Liu Chang. Emergency Evacuation Decision Support System for Coastal Cities in the Context of Climate Change —Implication from the FP7 Theseus Research Project[J].Journal of Tianjin University(Social Science),2018,(2):171-178.
点击复制

 气候变化背景下滨海城市应急疏散决策体系构建——以欧盟忒修斯项目为例()
分享到:

《天津大学学报(社会科学版)》[ISSN:1008-4339/CN:12-1290/c]

卷:
期数:
2018年2期
页码:
171-178
栏目:
建筑与文化
出版日期:
2018-03-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Emergency Evacuation Decision Support System for Coastal Cities
in the Context of Climate Change

—Implication from the FP7 Theseus Research Project
作者:
 高洁1 陈天1 刘畅2
 1. 天津大学建筑学院, 天津300072; 2. 中国城市规划设计研究院, 北京100044
Author(s):
 Gao Jie1 Chen Tian1 Liu Chang2
 1.School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;

2.China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Beijing 100044, China
关键词:
 忒修斯项目 应急疏散 决策体系 灾害管理 洪涝灾害
Keywords:
 Theseus research project emergency evacuation decision support system disaster management floods
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 面对全球气候变化的严峻挑战,非结构性防灾措施在城市综合防灾中日趋重要,滨海城市洪涝灾害的高风险性、低控制性以及可预期性,使得研究城市应急疏散具有重要意义。回顾了国外应急疏散决策的相关研究,总结了滨海城市应急疏散特点。介绍了忒修斯项目构建的SADT整体疏散决策体系,包括确定预报情景参数、地区人口及环境特征、行动级别及其他策略数据、疏散策略及优先选项、疏散场景及可行性、实施级别及策略优化、反馈及实施7项任务。阐述了决策流程及支持数据,具体说明了关键性策略的选择及主要难点的支持手段,并提出了优化策略。希望借鉴忒修斯项目经验,对我国滨海城市应急疏散决策体系构建产生有益启示。
Abstract:
 Coastal cities are facing great challenge that floods are becoming more frequent and extreme due to the climate change. Because of the high severity, low controllability and predictability of floods, the implementation of non-structural measures such as early warning and emergency evacuation is required to protect the population. Built upon emergency evacuation decision mechanisms in foreign countries and characteristics of evacuation in coastal cities, we identify all the stages of an evacuation and the thinking process that can lead to a robust evacuation plan in the FP7 Theseus research project (2009-2013). The methodology relies on a conceptual framework - SADT -which helps to understand how data should be processed throughout the plan. We define seven tasks in the framework and specify the key strategies and solution approaches. The risk scenarios are suggested to be calculated for current and future conditions in order to help authorities optimize their strategy for risk mitigation, taking into account the effects of climate change. Authorities should also compare different strategies and test the effects of the action levels to improve the general process.

相似文献/References:

[1]李健,张吉辉.水足迹视角下区域水资源灾变的灰色拓扑预测[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):1.
[2]李秀芳,景珮. 基于多目标规划的最优再保险策略[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):5.
[3]高素英,郝晓华,刘建朝,等. 滨海新区城市进化评价研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):15.
[4]郭俊华. 京津冀文化消费水平实证研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):21.
[5]赵黎明,卢 珊. 科技企业孵化器与创投合作绩效研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):26.
 [J].Journal of Tianjin University(Social Science),2013,(2):26.
[6]张念木,胡连兴,郭建欣. 水电工程后评价的综合评价方法研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):31.
 [J].Journal of Tianjin University(Social Science),2013,(2):31.
[7]姜姣娇,赵 涛. 电信业集团客户CRM价值评估模型设计与应用[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):41.
 [J].Journal of Tianjin University(Social Science),2013,(2):41.
[8]李义丹,周志刚. 人的全面发展观与人的科学发展观关系研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):46.
 [J].Journal of Tianjin University(Social Science),2013,(2):46.
[9]王 坤. 新农村建设中的非物质文化遗产之命运探析——以南乡义成永画店为例[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):50.
 [J].Journal of Tianjin University(Social Science),2013,(2):50.
[10]段志成,陈 通,杨秋波. 灾后基础设施重建中公众参与的行为框架及路径分析[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(1):54.
 [J].Journal of Tianjin University(Social Science),2013,(2):54.

更新日期/Last Update: