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[1]刘勇,赵梦梦. 基于省域的气候变化脆弱性指数及影响因素研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2018,(2):128-134.
 Liu Yong,Zhao Mengmeng. Research on Vulnerability Index of Climate Change and Influencing Factors Based on Provincial Areas[J].Journal of Tianjin University(Social Science),2018,(2):128-134.
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 基于省域的气候变化脆弱性指数及影响因素研究()
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《天津大学学报(社会科学版)》[ISSN:1008-4339/CN:12-1290/c]

卷:
期数:
2018年2期
页码:
128-134
栏目:
现代企业管理
出版日期:
2018-03-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Research on Vulnerability Index of Climate Change and Influencing
Factors Based on Provincial Areas
作者:
 刘勇 赵梦梦
 天津大学经济与管理学部, 天津 300072
Author(s):
 Liu Yong Zhao Mengmeng
 College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
关键词:
 气候变化脆弱性 脆弱性指数 多元线性回归 影响因素
Keywords:
 vulnerability of climate change vulnerable index multiple linear regression influencing factors
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 为了有效应对气候变化导致的不利影响,对省域的气候变化脆弱性进行定量评估并识别主要的影响因素具有显著的理论和现实意义。为此,基于气候灾害风险、天气及气候事件、暴露度以及脆弱性之间的关系,得到了中国大陆31个省域地区的气候变化脆弱性指数。结果表明,中国西部比东部呈现出更高的脆弱性。我国的的极度脆弱区主要分布在西北部,包括甘肃、青海和宁夏,东南部大部分和北京、天津属于微度脆弱区。在此基础上,选取了影响气候变化脆弱性的因素,并运用多元线性回归方法得出影响气候变化脆弱性的主要因素是自然资源、经济水平、人口以及气候因素,据此提出了有针对性的提升气候变化适应能力的政策建议。
Abstract:
 To alleviate the adverse influence of the climate change, making a quantitative evaluation to the vulnerability of the climate change in provincial areas and recognizing the main factors leadingto the climate change will have an important significance in both theoretical research and reality appliance. To this end, on the basis of the relationship between climatic disaster, climate and climate events as well as the exposure and vulnerability, the thesis has vulnerable index of the climate change in 31 provinces in Chinese mainland. The study shows that the climate in western China is more vulnerable than its eastern region with the extremely vulnerable zones are mainly located in the northwest of China including Gansu Province, Qinghai Province. Most of regions in Southeast as well as Beijing and Tianjin are divided into lightly vulnerable zones. According to the reality, the thesis selects the factors exerting influence on the vulnerability of climate change, and employ the MLR (multiple linear regression) as a way to analyze the main influencing factors to the vulnerability of climate change that are natural resources, economic development, population and other climate elements. Based on the conclusion, the thesis puts forward relevant policies and suggestions to improve the adaptation of climate change.

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